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Widespread mapping of coral thermal resilience is essential for developing effective management strategies and requires replicable and rapid multi-location assays of heat resistance and recovery. One- or two-day short-term heat stress experiments have been previously employed to assess heat resistance, followed by single assays of bleaching condition. We tested the reliability of short-term heat stress resistance, and linked resistance and recovery assays, by monitoring the phenotypic response of fragments from 101Acropora hyacinthuscolonies located in Palau (Micronesia) to short-term heat stress. Following short-term heat stress, bleaching and mortality were recorded after 16 hours, daily for seven days, and after one and two months of recovery. To follow corals over time, we utilized a qualitative, non-destructive visual bleaching score metric that correlated with standard symbiont retention assays. The bleaching state of coral fragments 16 hours post-heat stress was highly indicative of their state over the next 7 days, suggesting that symbiont population sizes within corals may quickly stabilize post-heat stress. Bleaching 16 hours post-heat stress predicted likelihood of mortality over the subsequent 3–5 days, after which there was little additional mortality. Together, bleaching and mortality suggested that rapid assays of the phenotypic response following short-term heat stress were good metrics of the total heat treatment effect. Additionally, our data confirm geographic patterns of intraspecific variation in Palau and show that bleaching severity among colonies was highly correlated with mortality over the first week post-stress. We found high survival (98%) and visible recovery (100%) two months after heat stress among coral fragments that survived the first week post-stress. These findings help simplify rapid, widespread surveys of heat sensitivity inAcropora hyacinthusby showing that standardized short-term experiments can be confidently assayed after 16 hours, and that bleaching sensitivity may be linked to subsequent survival using experimental assessments. 

The pervasive loss of biodiversity in the Anthropocene necessitates rapid assessments of ecosystems to understand how they will respond to anthropogenic environmental change. Many studies have sought to describe the adaptive capacity (AC) of individual species, a measure that encompasses a species’ ability to respond and adapt to change. Only those adaptive mechanisms that can be used over the next few decades (e.g. via novel interactions, behavioural changes, hybridization, migration, etc.) are relevant to the timescale set by the rapid changes of the Anthropocene. The impacts of species loss cascade through ecosystems, yet few studies integrate the capacity of ecological networks to adapt to change with the ACs of its species. Here, we discuss three ecosystems and how their ecological networks impact the AC of species and vice versa. A more holistic perspective that considers the AC of species with respect to their ecological interactions and functions will provide more predictive power and a deeper understanding of what factors are most important to a species’ survival. We contend that the AC of a species, combined with its role in ecosystem function and stability, must guide decisions in assigning ‘risk’ and triaging biodiversity loss in the Anthropocene. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Ecological complexity and the biosphere: the next 30 years’.